How It Works

What Are Prediction Markets?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. Each market poses a question — for example, “Will X happen by Y date?” — and the price of each outcome reflects the crowd’s estimate of its probability.

If an outcome is trading at 65¢, the market believes there is roughly a 65% chance it will happen. If you think the true probability is higher, you can buy shares; if lower, you can sell.

How to Trade

Buying Shares

Select an outcome (e.g. “Yes” or “No”), choose how many shares you want, and set your price. Your order will be matched against the order book. If the event resolves in your favor, each share pays out $1.00.

Selling Shares

You can sell shares at any time before a market resolves. If the price has moved in your favor, you lock in a profit. If it has moved against you, selling lets you cut your losses early.

How Markets Resolve

When the event’s outcome is determined, the market resolves. The winning outcome pays $1.00 per share and the losing outcome pays $0.00. Resolution is handled by UMA’s optimistic oracle, a decentralized system that verifies real-world outcomes on-chain.

Depositing & Withdrawing

Trading uses USDC.e on the Polygon network. To get started:

  1. Connect your wallet and complete the trading setup.
  2. Click Deposit to fund your trading wallet. You can bridge from any major chain or buy crypto with a card.
  3. To withdraw, send USDC.e from your Safe trading address back to any wallet you control.