The Iran situation has escalated significantly in the past 24 hours. IAEA reports indicate uranium enrichment has breached the 83.7% threshold, approaching weapons-grade levels. Nuclear negotiations have collapsed. Satellite imagery confirms new IRGC missile deployments near Bushehr, and unverified reports suggest potential leadership health concerns. Multiple OSINT sources report unusual military activity across several provinces. The probability of Israeli preemptive action has risen, with IDF confirming northern border reinforcements. Oil markets are pricing in a 15-20% risk premium. Key prediction markets show a 62% probability of Iranian retaliation by April 2026.
- IAEA reports 83.7% uranium enrichment — near weapons-grade
- Nuclear talks collapsed with E3+3 nations
- New IRGC Bavar-373 deployment confirmed near Bushehr
- Unconfirmed reports of Supreme Leader health emergency
- B-52 bombers in unusual Eastern Mediterranean holding pattern
- OPEC+ emergency meeting called amid tensions
Oil +4%, BTC -2.3%, Defense stocks +3.5%, Iran retaliation market probability at 62%